Over forty transport experts, modelers and researchers from industry, academia, and international governmental and non-governmental organizations gathered for the third International Transport Energy Modeling workshop (iTEM3) on 26 and 27 October 2017. Previously held in Davis, California, USA and Gothenburg, Sweden, the most recent iTEM workshop was held at the conference center of the Organization for Economic Cooperation & Development in Paris, France, and hosted by members of the International Transport Forum’s economics and modelling team.
iTEM participants gathered to hear updates on a variety of topics linked to efforts to model the future energy demand and environmental (especially climate) impacts of transportation activities across the globe. (See the complete agenda and presentation slides below.) The workshop also included substantive, open discussions about the methodologies and data needed for modelers to capture emerging trends, technologies and policies that will shape the transport landscape.
Contributors noted the great value of iTEM as a forum for modelers and researchers to “talk shop”—by exchanging frank perspectives on ongoing work; sharing current challenges & limitations; and learning of others’ efforts to overcome these. Such discussion led to a richer understanding of model results and how to communicate them to policymakers and other audiences. Attendees also noted key highlights around:
- Autonomous vehicles, including the range of alternate conceptions, methods for analysis in different frameworks, and value of time for AV users;
- Freight, including heavy-duty road vehicles, trade & goods movements modeling, new data sources and electrification; and
- Data sources—including public and private; primary and derived—for historical transport activity in certain countries and regions, and for new technologies and modes.
Plans were laid for ongoing bi- and multi-lateral collaborations on data, modeling and other research projects, including an effort to define common historical baselines and reference scenarios for projections. Participants also named priorities for iTEM4, which will be hosted in late 2018 by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), in Vienna, Austria:
- Continued attention to emerging mobility-as-a-service (both passengers and freight) modes, technologies and business models—and how to incorporate these into aggregate projections;
- Improved methods for quantifying and resolving uncertainties in data sources, and detailed methodological comparison of models used for projection;
- Deep-dive discussions of specific modes, regions, and driving factors including infrastructure expansion and behavioural change; and
- Examination of how models differ on transport sector changes in 2°C (and below 2°C) climate stabilization scenarios.